Marinomics: A Dismal Baseball Science

Convention note: Delta($M) = Player's figure less Team's figure
Delta(%) = Delta($M)/Avg(team, player)

Using the average of the two figures is because these differences are rather large and you can end up with very different numbers if you divide delta by the team's number (higher % delta) or the player's number (lower % delta).

LAST		FIRST	TEAM	TEAM'S	PLYR'S	DLT($M)	DLT(%)

Berkman       	Lance	HOU	10.000	11.000	1.000	9.5%

Lohse       	Kyle	MIN	2.150	2.400	0.250	11.0%

Ortiz       	Ramon	CIN	3.450	4.000	0.550	14.8%

Sheets       	Ben	MIL	5.500	6.500	1.000	16.7%

Blake       	Casey	CLE	2.150	2.600	0.450	18.9%

Zambrano       	Carlos	CHC	3.300	4.000	0.700	19.2%

Penny       	Brad	LA	4.700	5.700	1.000	19.2%

Lugo       	Julio	TB	3.100	3.800	0.700	20.3%

Julio       	Jorge	BAL	2.350	2.900	0.550	21.0%

Clark       	Brady	MIL	1.050	1.300	0.250	21.3%

Gryboski       	Kevin	ATL	0.780	0.975	0.195	22.2%

Byrnes       	Eric	OAK	2.000	2.500	0.500	22.2%

Hillenbrand     Shea	TOR	3.450	4.350	0.900	23.1%

Affeldt       	Jeremy	KC	0.950	1.200	0.250	23.3%

Ramirez       	Aramis	CHC	8.000	10.250	2.250	24.7%

Harper       	Travis	TB	0.650	0.840	0.190	25.5%

Koplove       	Mike	ARI	0.750	0.970	0.220	25.6%

Oswalt       	Roy	HOU	6.000	7.800	1.800	26.1%

Spivey Jr       Junior	MIL	2.000	2.600	0.600	26.1%

Giles       	Marcus	ATL	2.050	2.700	0.650	27.4%

Hall       	Toby	TB	1.700	2.250	0.550	27.8%

Silva       	Carlos	MIN	1.650	2.225	0.575	29.7%

Santana       	Johan	MIN	5.000	6.800	1.800	30.5%

Michaels       	Jason	PHI	0.650	0.925	0.275	34.9%

Cruz       	Juan	OAK	0.600	0.860	0.260	35.6%

Parrish       	John	BAL	0.575	0.825	0.250	35.7%

Almanzar       	Carlos	TEX	0.900	1.300	0.400	36.4%

Westbrook       Jake	CLE	2.500	3.700	1.200	38.7%

Colome       	Jesus	TB	0.550	0.825	0.275	40.0%

Kieschnick      Brooks	MIL	0.500	0.750	0.250	40.0%

Paul       	Josh	ANA	0.400	0.625	0.225	43.9%

Miller       	Trever	TB	0.850	1.375	0.525	47.2%

Clemens       	Roger	HOU	13.500	22.000	8.500	47.9%

Sosa       	Jorge	TB	0.550	0.925	0.375	50.8%

Fossum       	Casey	ARI	0.800	1.350	0.550	51.2%

Mackowiak       Rob	PIT	1.350	2.800	1.450	69.9%

Munro       	Pete	HOU	0.525	1.100	0.575	70.8%

Redding       	Tim	HOU	0.575	1.400	0.825	83.5%

			Total	97.555	130.42	32.865	28.8%

If you toss out the Roger Clemens figures, you could formulate an argument that says higher wage players are more risk averse than lower wage players - their offers are, on a relative basis, closer to the teams' offers. But I'd have a difficult time hanging my hat on 30some data points and you could also come up with a lot of theories as to why it's that way (for example, the reliability of forecasts of the player's production and the value of that production).

The topic of arbitration in baseball is a very interesting topic for game theorists and labor economists. In fact, "baseball arbitration" is a term used to describe final offer arbitration where the arbitrator has to choose between one of the two final offers

Good article about Shyman Das, baseball's arbitrator.